CS:GO Weapon Case

The 74 skins this case can drop. The price shown is the lowest recorded for that skin, any wear, StatTrak™ included.

The CS:GO Weapon Case was released on 14 Aug 2013, alongside The Arms Deal Collection (source: Valve’s announcement, cited by ByMykel/CSGO-API). See the latest game releases

Case price: €87.18Affiliate link: Veriloot may earn a commission, with no effect on the rankingLIS-SKINS
Key price: not measured
Cost of one opening: —
Expected value: €27.10
Return: —
Skins: 74
Rare special items ★: 65

Tradable key that opens it: CS:GO Case Key

You can also pay for a key with Steam balance bought for less: see today’s wallet ratio.

Prices recorded on 1 Oct 2026 at 05:47, Paris time.

The case’s collection:The Arms Deal Collection

Contents read from the game files by ByMykel/CSGO-API, imported on 30 Sept 2026.

Drop odds by rarity

Mil-Spec Grade79.923%
Restricted15.985%
Classified3.197%
Covert0.639%
Rare special item ★ (knife or gloves)0.256%

Odds published by Perfect World, the official operator of Counter-Strike in China, for weapon cases opened with a key. The same page says every item within a rarity has the same chance, and that when a case offers StatTrak™ items, the ratio for an item to be StatTrak™ is 1:10.

Source: “概率公示” page on csgo.com.cn, dated 11/09/2017, read on 29/09/2026.

The name and colour of every grade, including knives, gloves and agents: CS2 rarity grades.

The cheapest skins of these rarities:Cheapest Covert skins Cheapest Classified skins Cheapest agents

What an opening returns on average

As of 1 Oct 2026 at 05:36, Paris time, opening this case returns €27.10 on average at today’s buy prices. The case costs €87.18; the key, sold in-game, comes on top.

The case alone already costs €60.08 more than an opening returns on average, before the key is even counted.

On average, an opening returns less than it costs. Buying the skin you want directly costs less.

The key price is not measured: Valve only shows it in-game, and the third-party sources we read disagree. We don’t make it up, so there’s no total cost and no return.

0.01% of drops land on items with no accepted price. They’re left out of the average, which is therefore a floor.

How this figure is computed

Odds: the per-rarity rates published by Perfect World. Each rarity’s rate is split evenly across the case’s skins of that rarity, and the rare special item rate across each knife or pair of gloves, finish by finish. That’s the public convention for these rates.
StatTrak™: 10% of drops are the StatTrak™ version, when the case offers one. Gloves have none.
Wear: Valve doesn’t publish how float is rolled. We assume a uniform roll across the skin’s float range: each wear gets the share of that range that falls within its bounds (Factory New below 0.07, Minimal Wear up to 0.15, Field-Tested up to 0.38, Well-Worn up to 0.45, Battle-Scarred above). It’s an assumption, not published data.
Prices: for each item, its cheapest listing, under the safeguards below. Buy prices, fees excluded.
Prices come from the quotes our search accepts: a stale quote, or one too far from the other marketplaces’ prices, is dropped. When an item has only two usable quotes and one is more than 5 times the other, nothing says which one is right. The median of Steam sales over the last 24 hours breaks the tie, if there was at least 1 sale: if only one of the two is less than 2 times away from that median, above or below, it’s kept and the other is dropped. Otherwise, both are dropped. The listing kept must then have at least 5 listings, at least 2 other marketplaces must list the same item, and from €1.00 up, its price must not fall below a third of their median: lower than that, it’s a suspect reading, not a deal. Under €1.00, a single cent is enough to swing that ratio, so this check doesn’t apply. Steam is never kept as the price: its credit can’t be withdrawn.
An item with no accepted price doesn’t count as 0: it’s left out of the average, and its odds are counted separately. Above 10% of drops without a price, there’s no expected value.
Selling costs the marketplace’s fee: from 2% on CSFloat to 15% on Steam. What you’d get by reselling is therefore lower than these amounts.
Doppler and Gamma Doppler phases (Ruby, Sapphire, Emerald…) aren’t told apart: a Doppler knife counts at its cheapest listing, all phases together.